Shadow's of the 1980 Democratic primary
Despite what establishment Democrats say, Kennedy didn't lose Carter the 1980 election. And if Trump wins in the fall, it's no one's fault but Biden's.
I recently read Camelot's End: Kennedy vs. Carter and the Fight that Broke the Democratic Party, a phenomenal book by
detailing Ted Kennedy’s campaign to defeat incumbent, President Jimmy Carter in the 1980 Democratic primary. A relevant read for this week as New Hampshire kicks off the nation's primaries on Tuesday. There are many striking similarities between 1980 and 2024, though I’d say 2024 is still a bit more unique.The parallel between Carter and Biden are numerous. Both Democrats, elected after tumultuous Republican terms, promising to restore faith in politics. Both presided over high inflation, an array of conflicts in the Middle East, pressing environmental concerns, while being historically unpopular. Both 1980 and 2024 seemed ripe for a primary challenge, but that’s where the stories separate.
Kennedy, the heir of the “dream” taken by two assassins, seemed like a perfect challenger. Plagued by personal failings, primarily seen in his negligent homicide of Mary Jo Kopechne on Chappaquiddick in 1969, Kennedy would fall short of living up to the expectations projected on him.
While Kennedy was no help to Carter’s reelection bid against Ronald Reagan in 1980, he was far from being the nail in the coffin. Carter was damned by his issues. It made every sense for Kennedy to run. As Ward outlines, Kennedy was probably the best positioned to take on Carter, though as the campaign unfolded, he proved himself unprepared. While towards the end of the race, he pulled ahead, Carter's organizational skill outpaced his challenger.
Today, despite an intense hunger for a competitive Democratic primary, President Biden has remained mostly unscathed. In November, a Yahoo News poll found that 54% of Democrats wanted an alternative to Biden in the primary. Politicos, especially the establishment Democrats intent on securing Biden the nomination with as little resistance as possible, point to the Kennedy-Carter faceoff in 1980 as the reason why a primary challenge is a bad idea. Through this logic, Biden alternatives like Marianne Williamson and Representative Dean Phillips have been shunned. While using the 1980 primary as an example of what can go wrong when incumbents are challenged, its quite shallow. 1980 was the only election in modern history where there was a serious, convention fought challenge to the incumbent. There is no pattern to identify here because its only happened once. Conflating this one example is inaccurate, nonetheless that it’s not even the reason Carter lost.
Many in the Democratic establishment embraced Kennedy (Biden, in his first Senate term, supported Carter.) The media acknowledged the democratic process. Both to the frustration of Carter.
As an admirer of President Carter, I reject Kennedy and the distasteful strategies his team deployed, especially following his. Upstaging and embarrassing Carter at the DNC in the summer, continuing to attack Carter following the convention, and letting members of his team embrace Reagan are all a part of his legacy. Though even as I dislike Kennedy, I don’t begrudge him for running. Democracy requires rigorous challenge. Being president, or any elected leader doesn’t free you from challenge. The greatest form of scrutiny in a democracy is elections. Carter was challenged in 1980 because he was unpopular and had many failures (both fairly and unfairly attributed), and for those same reasons, Democrats and the media should take Biden’s challengers seriously today.
Biden is losing to a person with over 90 indictments, many of which are for trying to reject the Constitution and other treasonous behavior. No Democrat should be losing to a candidate so flawed and disliked. Whether or not Kennedy would have won against Reagan will never be known, but we can guess that he would have performed better than Carter who lost all but six states.
Ted Kennedy was cast as a bad guy by the Carters, and I agree. But at the end of the day, it was Carter who lost the election for himself. It will take a lot for Biden to win and he doesn’t seem to be doing much.
Anything could happen in the next 10 months. But if circumstances remain similar to what they are now, Democrats are set to hand to Trump another, possibly more destructive, second term. While the establishment will try to blame Dean Phillips, Marianne Williamson, or another of Biden’s challengers for a Trump victory in November, it’ll be on Biden.
My views here do not reflect those of Jon Ward in Camelot’s End.