Egypt's water crisis explained
The most populous nation in the Middle East could face complete water scarcity by 2025 if prompt action isn't taken
For many decades, the issue of water scarcity has been looming over Egypt, though in recent years uncertainty has become more pressing. The United Nations estimates Egypt will be in a state of complete scarcity by 2025, and in January 2022, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi declared the country to be in a "state of water poverty", as levels hit new lows.
Despite varied causes, the need for solutions to the water crisis in Egypt is urgent. Water scarcity directly connects to issues regarding agriculture, effecting food security and jobs. As more citizens feel the effects of water depletion, the government has a significant interest in securing resources to both provide for citizens and subdue calls for governmental reform or revolt.
The decline of available water in the most populous country in the Middle East, and third in Africa, has been caused by a variety of domestic and international factors, both within and outside of the government's control. Causes range from the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), Egypt's rapidly growing population, climate change, and resistance to efficient water management and usage.
Solutions to Egypt's water crisis must be as varied as its causes. An advanced understanding of the issues will progress the implementation of effective and popular solutions. Once relief is provided to the pressure points of the crisis, the Egyptian people will flourish and humanitarian fears will cease.
Water is an incredibly valuable resource in the mostly desert country as its economy and citizenry rely heavily on agriculture. Agriculture makes up 11% of Egypt's economy and with a poverty rate above 32%, millions are already hungry. Egypt faces an annual water shortage of more than 7 billion cubic meters and the UN projects it’ll be completely dry by 2025. Lacking government assistance, many seek illegal methods of obtaining water, leading to leaks and ineffective plumbing.
The country receives around 98% of its water from the world's largest river, the Nile. Because of Egypt's reliance on the Nile, most issues directly connect back to the river. In 2011, Ethiopia began construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) without consulting or negotiating with its downstream neighbors, including Egypt. The GERD began its first phase of filling in the Summer of 2020. Ethiopia extracts huge sums of energy from the dam to provide electricity to its tens of millions of un-resourced citizens. The GERD has faced criticism from international organizations as well as Egypt, prompting tension between the two regional magnates.
Despite it running through ten countries, colonial-era treaties secure Egypt as the principal owner of the Nile. During their imperial rule, the British used the river as a means of controlling the resources of their neighbors in an effort to maintain regional supremacy. Egypt's historic control of the Nile secured the country with relative resource stability, though in 2010 five upstream countries challenged Egypt's power, signing a treaty rejecting the old order and establishing a shared control of the river. This power-sharing agreement led to the construction of the GERD in 2011.
The GERD uses high-powered turbines to generate electricity. The dam reduced the volume of water moving to Egypt, leading to decreased flow and reduced levels. The operation of the GERD prompts both ecological and political dilemmas. Egypt’s growing need for water and its increased frustration with upstream nations like Ethiopia creates heightened risk of conflict.
While the GERD is a pressing force on the Egyptian political and humanitarian crisis, it’s not the driving cause of water scarcity. One of the largest uses of water is for agriculture. Irrigation systems are essential in the growth of crops that not only feed the nation but also power its economy. Old and outdated irrigation methods dominate Egyptian agriculture, leading to practices that waste water and provide poor irrigation. Most farmers use a method of flood irrigation to water crops – a process where hundreds of gallons of water are flooded over crops, wasting huge sums in the process.
The way water arrives at farms is also incredibly inefficient. Water that flows from the Nile, travels through thousands of miles of canals and sub-canals that slow the rate that the water flows to farms. Slowing the flow of water in the intensely hot climate results in increased evaporation.
Another leading cause of the crisis is Egypt's rapidly growing population. Egypt's population has increased by 40% since the 1990s and is expected to add nearly ten million newborns before 2025. Increased population results in more demand for drinking water and increased demand for food, further raising the demand for water for agriculture.
Trash and waste pollute the Nile and other canals, making clean water undrinkable. Pollution is primarily caused by industrial waste being dumped into the river, including toxic materials, metal, animal carcasses, and other dangerous toxins that ruin the usability of water. Sewage water is also frequently poured into the river, further ruining the quality.
As climate temperatures rise globally, Egypt faces unique challenges in managing increased droughts. Hotter temperatures prompt higher demands for water and progress evaporation, culminating in massive losses of water.
The undemocratic nature of the al-Sisi regime provides activists with unique challenges in seeing popular changes implemented, but without robust and prompt action the regime faces significant political risks. Regardless of the system of governance, Egypt must take action to peacefully secure its citizens' water and ensure that more sustainable practices are used to avoid future water shortages. Proposed solutions must directly address the problems caused by the GERD, ineffective water management, environmental degradation, and climate change.
In 2009, Cairo released a nearly 200-page report detailing the degree to which the crisis had developed, and proposed ways to address it. The report highlights many steps the country could take through 2030, though as time has passed, factors have become more complex and the crisis has worsened. Egypt has taken some action on the 2009 proposals, though they have not come far enough in addressing the crisis before the 2025 estimate of complete water scarcity.
Egypt has taken steps to implement water recycling. After crops are irrigated, water can be rerouted and recycled. Today, only about 10% of used water is reused, though, with further investment and development that rate could increase.
In addition to their advancements in water recycling, Egypt has made significant investments in desalination. Desalination is the process in which salt water is filtered to be fresh and drinkable. Desalination is a complex and expensive process that can take many years of development to be effective. If desalination is done improperly it could lead to further ecological issues.
The most difficult force in the way of mitigating the water crisis will be the GERD. Any negotiations regarding the Ethiopian dam must be conducted diplomatically with peace always at the forefront of discussions. Egypt should negotiate a new power-sharing deal of the Nile to secure their regional legitimacy and establish a process for using the Nile and managing the energy produced by the GERD. Negotiations with Ethiopia could include reducing the amount of energy produced by decreasing the water flowing through the dam, therefore increasing the level of water downstream. The billion-dollar and decade-old dam won’t be going anywhere, so Egypt must maintain a realistic position to ensure realistic results.
Aggressive solutions must be implemented regarding the use of water in agriculture. The 2009 report written by the Egyptian government explains that “the efficiency of water conveyance and irrigation in Egypt at 70 and 50 percent, respectively”. The report goes on to write that fixing minor leaks and switching to a drip irrigation system could save huge amounts of water every year. Many Egyptian farms currently use a flood irrigation system, though by using drip irrigation Egypt could reduce its water waste and increase efficiency. Food supply would not be impacted, and the crisis could be reduced. Egypt could implement this through a transitional period of investment, employing regulators to ensure that farms are following guidelines. Many farmers have resisted using drip irrigation as it embraces newer technology that requires re-training and abandoning centuries-old farming methods. Egypt must listen to the concerns of these farmers while securing a policy of transition and sustainability.
In addition to using drip irrigation, Egypt must diversify its farms and grow less water-intensive crops. Egypt would need to outsource the crops it currently grows and focus its agriculture on more drought-tolerant foods like rice. Increased rice farms would not only use less water than current crops, but could also aid in desalinating groundwater which could be pumped and used for drinking.
Relying less on the Nile and pumping more groundwater would result in a more stable water source. Egyptian groundwater is too salty to simply pump and filter for drinking, so investments must be made in groundwater desalination. Desalinating groundwater is less expensive than ocean water, leading to a more fiscally manageable solution.
Though groundwater is promising, it is not unlimited and cannot be collected immediately. Egypt obtains more than 98% of its water from the Nile and pollution continues to damage the usability of the water. Egypt must impose strict fines on industries that pollute the water and practice more oversight to ensure companies are using clean methods of disposing waste. Egypt must also embark on a modernization effort of their sewage systems and invest in filtering technology to decrease raw sewage into the Nile.
While Egypt alone cannot do a lot to combat the effects of climate change, it can be a voice in pushing countries to uphold more sustainable fuel and energy standards to reduce the rate and effects of climate change. In 2022, Egypt held the United Nations COP27 climate summit – an impactful event highlighting Egypt's climate perils on a global stage, while facilitating a meaningful dialogue regarding environmental protection.
While Egypt’s water crisis must be addressed urgently and places millions of lives at risk, hope is not lost. The Egyptian government must take swift action to secure water and create a sustainable plan for future water usage. Solutions are expensive, but if billions are not invested in solving the water crisis, Egypt will be uninhabitable for its tens of millions of citizens.
Significant challenges stand in the way of ending water scarcity in Egypt, though through cordial discussions with neighboring countries and prompt policy implementation the future of water in Egypt will be secured.